Time, uncertainty and trade flows

The Gravity Model and Iran's Trade Flows

This article has considered the volume and direction of Iran’s trade using the gravity model. The major issue in this analysis is to explore why Iran over or under-traded with the 76 countries relative to the predicted trade flows of the model. The study attempts to explore the reasons from the respect of both the model itself and Iran’s trade structure. This is done by analysing the performanc...

The volatility of international trade flows and exchange rate uncertainty∗

Empirical evidence obtained from data covering Eurozone countries, other industrialized countries, and newly industrialized countries (NICs) over 1980– 2006 shows that exchange rate uncertainty has a consistent positive and significant effect on the volatility of bilateral trade flows. A one standard deviation increase in exchange rate uncertainty leads to an eight per cent increase in trade vo...

R&D Spillovers, Trade Integration And Expansion Of Trade Flows In East- West Asia And Pacific

con . ppr Uncertainty , Trade , and Capital Flows in Sub - Saharan Africa

Introduction 1 I. The Importance of Internal and External Shocks 4 A. External Shocks: Uncertain Terms of Trade 4 B. External Shocks: Uncertain Access to and Cost of Foreign Capital 5 C. Internal Shocks: Uncertain Agricultural Output and Domestic Policy Shocks 10 D. Life is Uncertain! So What? 11 II. The Impact of Uncertainty on Production Commodity Trade 11 III. Trade in Goods and Risk-Free Bo...

On the Sensitivity of the Volume and Volatility of Bilateral Trade Flows to Exchange Rate Uncertainty

We present an empirical investigation of the hypotheses that exchange rate uncertainty may have an impact on both the volume and variability of trade flows by considering a broad set of industrial countries’ bilateral real trade flows over the period 1980–1998. Similar to the findings of earlier theoretical and empirical research, our first set of results shows that the impact of exchange rate ...